Great Barrier Reef Has Ten Years to Live according to Univesity of Queensland

[gizmoody]

New Scientist post. 10 years to come up with a solution!

 

"TIME is not on our side: we have just 10 years to save the Great Barrier Reef. That's according to Ove Hoegh-Guldberg at the University of Queensland in Brisbane, Australia. If we continue to release CO₂ into the atmosphere at current rates, within a decade we will reach a tipping point beyond which ocean warming will occur no matter what we do, reducing the reef's chances of survival, he told delegates at the Greenhouse 2011 conference in Cairns this week.

 

Just six years ago the outlook was more optimistic. Biologists had found evidence that corals might cope with warmer oceans by swapping the symbiotic algae they rely on for their energy with versions that function efficiently at higher temperatures. But more recent studies have suggested that this is only an option for the 25 per cent of the world's coral species that host multiple species of algae rather than just one. The remaining species must "migrate their way out of trouble" instead, says Hoegh-Guldberg.

 

His calculations suggest that under current rates of warming, the corals must move southwards at a rate of 15 kilometres per year to stay cool. "Individual coral larvae can travel great distances, but the entire reef system can't," he says. "The uncomfortable conclusion is that we might lose the reef."

 

Lesley Hughes at Macquarie University in Sydney agrees. "There is virtually no evidence" that coral reefs can adapt fast enough to keep up with global warming, she says."

 

 

[Coral Hind]

I'm not saying the issue of pollution isn't serious but I remember hearing the same thing being predicted about twenty years ago. Besides it doesn't matter what the scientists say, the world ends next year.

 

It sounds like they should allow more corals into the hobby trade so we can genetically bank them in our tanks.

[FearTheTerps]

We do tend to hear this alot, I can remember being told first hand by a group of researchers 14 years ago. I went to AU in 1997 as part of an educational trip. We spent 5 days on the reef, most of it was recreational snorkeling, but we did get to speak with a group of university students and professors, They said the outcome was bleak even back then before all this global warming talk started happening.

[jnguyen4007]

Even if the prediction is off by 20 or more years, there's no denying that the world's reef is in decline in some shape or form. The question is can we afford to wait when the disaster is finally on top of us or on top of our children before we try to do something about it. We tend to push things off for tomorrow if it doesn't affect us today. I think it's easier to come up with a long term solution while time is still on our side, and take small steps toward that than to wait till last minute and come up with a drastic measure that may not work at all.

[OUsnakebyte]

Even if the prediction is off by 20 or more years, there's no denying that the world's reef is in decline in some shape or form. The question is can we afford to wait when the disaster is finally on top of us or on top of our children before we try to do something about it. We tend to push things off for tomorrow if it doesn't affect us today. I think it's easier to come up with a long term solution while time is still on our side, and take small steps toward that than to wait till last minute and come up with a drastic measure that may not work at all.

 

This is exactly my thinking as well. I don't pay much heed to the, "they will be gone in 10, 20, 50" or whatever years. There is absolutely no doubt that reefs are in steady decline almost everywhere, and that is unacceptable.

[Reefoholic]

I agree with the commends above. Having many scientists and especially marine biologists in my family, the human affect on nature is absolutely undeniable. I don't think the real concern here is how long the reefs can sustain living and thriving (if applicable); it is the fact that we (humans) are slowly but surely depleting resources, poisoning the environment and worst of all blindly ignoring our destruction of earth. I always hear people saying: "how can one person change this? How can one person make a difference?" I strongly believe that one person DOES make an immense difference. If everyone were more sensitive and caring about only one thing that they are sincerely passionate about, mountains could be moved!

 

 

This is exactly my thinking as well. I don't pay much heed to the, "they will be gone in 10, 20, 50" or whatever years. There is absolutely no doubt that reefs are in steady decline almost everywhere, and that is unacceptable.

[gizmoody]

Has anyone seen corals in their tanks adapt to higher temperatures and survive for a long time? Any other observations regarding adaptations in captivity that could help in the wild?

[OUsnakebyte]

Well, it really doesn't work like that. Adaptation happens on the population level, not the individual level. You would need a steady dose of captive sexual reproduction of corals to see this happen. Though, I guess perhaps with corals given their ability to asexually fragment, there *might* be some wiggle room for somatic cell mutation fueling adaptation in a given individual... though... as I think about this, that is a stretch. But, I don't like to think something is impossible.

 

What's more, captive conditions - especially for something like corals - are so far removed from wild conditions with multiples of variables that it would be hard pressed to compare to wild conditions and adaptations. We don't even see wild-type diseases showing up in captive conditions (and vice versa going from captive to wild).

 

The one thing that might work in their favor is being able to internally shuffle around clades of zooxanthellae to those clades that are more "heat tolerant." But, from what we understand, not all corals can do this.

 

Science Daily Article

 

Of course, this shuffling of zoox doesn't address the looming possibility of increasingly acidifying oceans.

 

Cheers

Mike

Edited April 15, 2011 by OUsnakebyte